By investigating scientific data, documentaries and political consensuses concerning climate crisis, it is not easy to understand what will happen. Does anyone really know what the future will bring?

The science tells the truth, documentaries and politicians try to calm people down by providing the most optimistic outcome. The truth about carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is more like a “what did I say” experience for most people, because they understand that the polluted highways are not a good thing.

The overall consensus on the climate crisis is the non-scientific hope that tomorrow will be a “sunny day”

It is important that we realize what the outcome will be, and start to do what is necessary. For some people it is preparing for Armageddon, for others it is inventions and adaptation.

Maybe there are no solutions, only a postponement of the real outcome. This is difficult to predict, but we might get an idea of where the future is taking us.

Drought

As a small exercise we can try to find the “List of largest reservoirs of California” on the internet. Because of the resent drought they experienced, this list can be used to find some pictures from 2015 of these reservoirs. When you find the pictures, you probably understand that the imagery does not seem to be correlated to the media coverage.

People seem to be more interested in Facebook, the Californian tech dream, than being concerned about water. Maybe creating a group on Facebook can help when the water levels are low. It will not be easy to move the state’s nearly 40 million people, when Facebook no longer is their concern, but water is.

This makes it necessary to question the system we have created, when we start desalination of sea-water to solve a problem which will only escalate.

When people are lacking water, finances are the least of their concerns.

Recently in 2016, these reservoirs were filled with water, and people seem to be happy. The drought is over! But is it really over, or is this just a warning about what we will experience as a norm in the future? Most likely people will forget this incident very quickly, when things are good and prosperous again. But they should not!

Heavy rain

Contradictory to California, the rainy city of Bergen (Norway) have more than 230 days of rain on an average year.  Today the citizens should probably be very happy about that, when the future forecast is mainly hot-hot-hot.

But northern countries are now experiencing heavy rain, resulting in floods and other problems. This is a result of the laws of thermodynamics where the movement of water transport it towards colder areas before it fall down as rain.

The documentary about Dick Gill, the man who allegedly solved the puzzle concerning the Ancient Apocalypse and Mayan destruction, leads us to information about an interesting part of the physical laws influencing the water cycle and rain. It moves closer to the northern hemisphere when the southern parts are heating up. To verify these results, it might be interesting to find out about what’s going on further north.

The north pole

A resent article in the Washington Post states that the temperature on the North Pole is 20 degree Celsius (36 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal.

Lets evaluate the truth of this information by looking at a location where they have great weather statistics.

Longyearbyen

The most interesting place to visit if you want to really feel the power of energy-movement and climate change is Longyearbyen. The Arctic Island Svalbard is a part of Norway, and is quite far north with regards to human settlements. Svalbard is actually the northernmost settlement in the world.

Just to give you an indicator of what above normal means in terms of climate change, we will show you the current situation in this city. The 6th of November 2016 this city had 9.0 degrees above normal (16.2 Fahrenheit), the last 30 days.

Another interesting graph is the temperature measurements for the entire year.

Notice the rain, and the temperature. Some months have 300 % increase in precipitation. You can easily question if rain is more relevant than temperatures in our climate.

Some people have a tendency to believe that the temperature in California is relevant. But the deserts do not really contain much more than sand, and cannot increase much in temperature. But when you see rain and temperatures increasing close to the Arctic, it gives us vital information about the movement of energy.

Movement of energy

Let’s assume that scientists are measuring a temperature at one location, and another temperature at another location. If the difference in the temperature is not separated by a certain amount of distance, they are connected. If they do this all over the globe, they provide us with the understanding that all the temperatures are interconnected and in equilibrium. A hot location at one place will be cold at another place, when energy diffusion happens through raining, transportation or other means. This means that if we increase the energy-content globally from a static resource to a dynamic heat signature, there will still be thermal equilibrium and we will not be able to measure this based on an historic reference when measuring the deviations all over the world.

Movement of water gives us a better understanding of what’s happening. Temperatures above average, increases evaporation, and finally increase precipitation. The accumulated energy is moved with the wind, drained in its transportation, and released when the water is pouring down. In such systems, we are certain that the movement of energy is defined by the laws of thermodynamics. Measuring the above and below averages in the system of evaporation and precipitation will probably over time average around a zero reference.

The Carnot engine is directly related to the water cycle, and can work as a simplified physical description of a complex weather system.

This means that we have to calculate the movement of water, to understand the real physics of what we have done to our climate. This is not easy, because the world’s oceans are not influenced by drought.

The first law of thermodynamics:

The increase in internal energy of a closed system is equal to the heat supplied to the system minus work done by it.

This tells us something very important. If the system is using most of the energy to do enormous amounts of work, the internal energy increases even if we do not experience the extra heat supplied to the system, because the energy is bound to water transportation and not to temperature.

This means that when we first are able to measure a small temperature-increase, we do not really know how much energy we are talking about because the temperature increase is a result of the loss of thermal conductivity. Additionally, we might not experience the really high levels in temperature before the energy dissipation is loosing momentum.

Loss of thermal conductivity is not following a linear curve

When people are talking about ice melting and rain pouring down, they are actually talking about the thermodynamic work in progress. The amount of energy we are talking about is enormous, and it will increase fast.

We can assume that we have polluted sufficiently to increase the energy by enormous amounts. This means that local averages will start performing work on our water systems, according to the Carnot heat engine and the first law of thermodynamics. You might be lucky if you are living in the part of the world where this work is precipitation rather than evaporation.

Remember that if a local average is 9 degrees Celsius above normal like in Longyearbyen, another system is connected through the “Laws of thermodynamics”.

Local averages are a much more real measurement and provide us with a sound mathematical understanding, compared to the global average. The globe cannot be referenced by any other systems.

One interesting observation, is the following:

If temperatures in the North is increasing, the difference between heat in the south and cold in the north is less than normal. This means that the added energy from the sun, will not be converted to work but rather to heat, in accordance to the Carnot engine.

This will increase drought at equator. And increase precipitation in the North.

Increased precipitation – and the addition of water

Current scientific studies are only looking at the gases that can be proven as a long term green-house gas; carbon dioxide, methane and Nitrous oxides. We all know that this is the consequences of extracting and using fossil fuels. Another indirect result of fossil fuel are the inclusion of water. Cutting forests and increasing irrigation from agriculture are both participating in an increased addition of water into our water cycles.

Adding water to our water cycle is an additional grave concern to our climate. If we water the desert, as a solution to drought, water shortage and food scarcity, we add the worst greenhouse gas of them all. Water vapour!

This greenhouse gas is contributing 36-72% percent of the greenhouse effect. So the people who are going to desalinate us out of this crisis do not really understand the cause to our problems.

A documentary called Cadillac desert is describing a quite big desert area already adding extreme amounts of water to our water cycle. Another documentary called Green deserts is trying to solve our pending climate crisis by adding more water to our deserts. We should hope, for the sake of our future, that we stop this development. Because for each drop added, the drought will probably increase in strength. Maybe we are lucky if we get more water, but what is the real outcome of this instability that we create?

Numbers for thought

Let us find some numbers for thought. The Colorado river in USA is never reaching the sea. Let’s use this river to find out how much water we use to water the desert.

• Colorado River – approximately an average of 15 billion cubic meter annually

We can assume that much of this turn into water vapor, and some of it becomes vegetables.

In coherence with America’s annual CO2 emissions at approximately 5 billion metric tons, it might be interesting to ask questions about our total global vapor and gas emissions.

Let’s try to find out how much energy we add to the climate by performing a small experiment. Lets again look at California, with their Almond production at nearly 300.000 tons, and the water usage this demands at around 3 billion tons. If the numbers are correct or not, is not that important, because they say something about how small amounts of food we get from very high water consumption in a desert. We can make some assumptions in regards to this consumption by stating that an Almond tree is loosing most of its water through transpiration, and that only 10% is used for its life-cycle. This means that around 90% of the water evaporates. This is probably a simplified assumption in the studies of evapotranspiration and aridity-indexes. Again we can state that the accuracy of these numbers are not very important, and we will use them to find some numbers for the energy-accumulation when we are watering the desert.

Let us look at the mathematics about how much energy we need to heat 13.5 billion cubic meters of water from 25°C to vapor.

q1 = energy needed to heat water from 25 til 100 degrees Celsius
q2 = energy needed to vaporize water at 100 degrees Celsius

q1 = mcΔT = 1000g * 4,184 J°C^-1g^-1*75°C = 313800 J
q2 = mΔH_fd = 1000g * 2260 Jg^-1 = 2260000 J
Total = q1 + q2 = 2,57 MJ = 0,72 kWh

If we multiply this by 13,5 billion metric tons (1350 billion liters), this will be around 34,7*10¹⁸ J or 9,72*10¹⁵ kWh.
To find out how much water we can increase by 1°C with this energy, we can divide this by 4184 J and get approximately 830000 billion liters.

This is a simplified calculation but it says something about the size of these numbers in comparison to other entities. If there are any deviations in the correctness of the calculations, the numbers will still be very large.

Compared to the amount of water on our planet the number is still small. But in comparison with the amount of ice we have on our planet it is around a couple parts per mille. With the knowledge that we have done this in 100 years, it amounts to some percentages.

For those who are skeptical to these facts, must understand that if the water was running freely to the sea, no energy accumulation would exist, because the desert sand have a specific heat capacity of approximately 0,29 J°C^-1g^-1 compared to water of 4,1813 J°C^-1g^-1. This means that all the heat in the sand is lost during the night, but with water it is moved due to the fact that vapor is moved by the wind from hot locations to colder locations. Sand cannot move in this way due to gravity.

The numbers does not speak for themselves because they are a part of a difficult calculation. But to avoid complicated mathematics we can simply state the following; “the accumulated energy in vapor, falls down as rain, not as snow”. We also know that rain is a release of energy. When northern parts of our world are getting more of this energy, we understand that a lot of ice will melt. This will reduce the temperatures in northern parts of our world, and the difference between north and south. This will heavily intensify the diffusion between those areas.

Watering the desert is not good, even if you are fed by it! The effect will soon surpass the cause, because the globe will try to regain balance.

If you look at the global irrigation of arid and semi-arid regions, you will understand that it is possible to use this information to calculate the global increase in ocean temperature and get highly predictable results. If we look at one project who is about to be implemented, you start to wonder if human intelligence is not correlated to knowledge, only to survival.

The project is the following : The Chinese south-north water transport system, where they intend to include 45 billion metric tons of water into the water cycle. The official site for the water project tells us about how Mao Zedong’s had to abandon his visions about this water project. It is very important that the Chinese Government understand the consequences of this water project and that they abandon this vision once more. The consequences they face is that the drought in China will intensify and expand throughout the entire country.

It it difficult to understand that irrigation and creating food supplies is connected to an unprecedented climate crisis. It might sound even more irrational and strange that destroying a food supply eventually can be connected to our survival. At some point this might become a rational thing to consider.

Remember that the global Carbon emissions are approximately 35 billion metric tons. Only one river (Colorado River),  are delivering 15 billion metric tons of water who turns into vapor. According to California’s nice sunny weather and low precipitation we have to ask question about where this water falls down and the effect it creates.

The 0.8 degree global increase

A resent documentary concerning the increase in global temperature showed that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had established the global temperature to be around 0.8 degree Celsius above average (Hansen et al. 2010  – Global Surface Temperature Change). This number is based on historic temperature measurements, where they are able to measure the temperature-increases from around 1850-1900 until today. Most likely they are filling in the blanks by using normal mathematics and extrapolation if they have incomplete data from some periods.

We can assume that historically global temperatures are very incomplete, and that they provide us with huge uncertainties. An important issue concerning this report is that it does not provide any references to normal physics or thermodynamics. An understanding of the physics is more enlightening than reading this report, which is solely based on temperature measurements.

An historic temperature measurement is not a scientific reference measurement.

Since the distribution of temperatures “above average” and temperatures “below average” at some point will fluctuate around a zero-reference, the 0.8 temperature reference is an uncertain and strange number to refer to. Any person with below average knowledge in math and physics will understand this.

If we consider the water cycle compared to the 0,8 degree increase, we understand the lack of information this number provides when it is 9 degrees Celsius above normal in the north.

Climate by observation

If you did search for some pictures about the drought in California, you probably understand that something serious is going on.

In the rainy city of Bergen in Norway, people are used to a climate with not too cold winters because of our coastline. For children in the 80’s it was a lot of fun with ice on the waters during winter-time. Such experiences do not exist anymore.

Ice and rain is a vital measurements compared to air-temperatures, and the observation will say something about the reality and the science behind this reality.

When Bergen is experiencing temperatures around 2-degree Celsius above average, this is defying the IPCC report about the global 0.8 Celsius temperature increase.

If we include Longyearbyen with its temperature increase of 9 degrees (16.2 Fahrenheit) above normal, you would be above normally shocked.

Consequences (solutions?)

It is quite certain many places in the world will experience that shit will happen!

How serious these events will be, is uncertain. But it will not be a gradual thing. Most people think it will be a hundred years until something bad happens, and because of this we can calm down and relax. But most likely it will be sudden and interconnected events.

We probably do not need to establish this as a fact. Photographs are telling a truth, beyond science and mathematics in the field of thermodynamics.

It is uncertain if we are able to defy this, even if we act fast. We probably have to be much faster than any predictions governments and national agencies are forecasting. They are more interested in providing the quick fix, rather than the long term solution. In times of crisis, they will only rely on the peoples’ collective effort to fix it: “Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country”. 

A simple observation of the most viable solution can be observed when flying over farm-land, spotting a small forest among all the farms. Sometimes there are small clouds above this small spot of forest. This simple observation is the solution, and it means that only a massive tree-planting endeavor of fast growing deciduous trees can save us from the pending droughts. Even if you lose 60% of the farmland in such a process, it is better than losing it all. But it is not certain that it works, because the process needs a lot of water to be able to connect the forest to the water cycle.

Other important information about eventual consequences can be found by reading the book “Capital in the 21st century” by Thomas Piketty. It shows us the distribution of wealth. In this distribution the farmland is only 1% of the total national capital. This means that it is very unlikely that people understand that this small 1% can cripple the other 99%, because of the unnatural shift in what people think is valuable. It does not help if you own billions of dollars’ worth of stocks in an App-company, if the 1% of farmland sustaining these billions of App-dollars, is turning into a desert.

It is important to understand that man-made climate change will surpass all historical recordings. It is also very important to understand that previous analysis of human growth did not show a positive outcome (Limits to growth) and that the climate crisis can be a very damaging and limiting factor in such predictions.

Playing along with Mother Nature is the key; not trying to defeat her. We should know this by now. So, when you see the stock exchanges in the world start trading water resources, you should be a bit concerned.

Think for yourself. Pictures are much more accurate than any politician

Notes about COP26 and cumulative errors

It is hard to belive that our politicians and leaders have meanings in the current discussion on how to avoid that shit happens, when they should respond to the current facts. Nothing more, nothing less.

This article may have failed to point out the most critical mathematical problem that the “climate crisis” generates. Cumulative errors.

The cumulative error is probably known to all scientists and mathematicians. Despite our effort, the accumulation of heat is dominating the picture. The temperature is only an indicator of this cumulative error because the accumulation is stored in land-masses and water.

I belive that scientists know exactly what happens, and that the cumulative error can be hard to reverse since it is an exponential function similar to what we have seen with our populations.

All opinions in the politicians’ discussions should be muted by our ancestors stupidity, and the need to save our future generations. It is difficult to blame rich countries, since they used the same arguments when our previous generations wanted to exploit energy to create welfare and riches for all.

Unfortunately they now need to do the same, by reducing energy-usage to zero. This will be extremely difficult due to our current status quo, and our energy systems that creates a cumulative error.

Only extreme measures can save us, or eventually extreme measures will degrade us.

Notes about the current status – 2018

In October 2018 the UN created a special report concluding that we have extremely short time to stop burning fossil fuels. If we are unable to do this, the world we leave to our children will be uninhabitable for all life on earth.

It does not really come as a surprise. Our energy use have consequences that enable us to do things with our environment that are far more serious than adding water and creating food.

As a result of this, the Extinction Rebellion was formed. The question is: are they prepared for this battle. Because the battle is about limiting energy usage who currently are the main driver for our current growth. They will be embarking on a quest where some people eventually will be deprived of welfare, stability, food, a good future; all the good things most people in the western world will take for granted due to increased energy usage every year, every day.

Such an endeavor requires a rationale that most people does not possess, and will at some point turn to a bloody mess. Because the opponent will not only be politicians, but everybody who think that they are entitled to keep on doing what we have been doing for a century. Most people does not possess the will to change, and must be forced.

An interesting thing about this newly founded rebellion is that what they embark on, cannot really be prosecuted by the courts. Who can judge a man or woman who is fighting for the future of their children’s survival. It is merely active self defense, where the politicians currently threatens our children’s survival. With this in mind it would be interesting to watch the fight, because at some point the governments have to accept that they are holding the gun against its own population. In a dictatorship this might work, in a strong democracy it won’t.

Notes about desalination by adding water

To understand what is going on, an interesting place to investigate is Israel. They started desalination many years ago, due to increases in drought and population.

The problems concerning droughts are much more severe than you may think. Today Israel is using 2 billion cubic meters of water per year, including water for farmland. 600 million cubic meter of that water is desalination, and 400 million is recycled sewage.

What would be the result when they are desalination their entire water usage?

An educated man might say that they found an interesting solution, and that this is something that they can use in California. But an intelligent person would probably understand that if this happens, they are living in a desert where no other life can exist, solely on energy-usage from a finite resource. The most interesting thing is that the finite resource they are using is probably the source of their drought. This leads to a worrying conclusion:

Desalination is providing us with a water resource by consuming energy, the direct cause of the diminishing resource

This horrible truth is then a non-causal decision by Israel’s leaders. Is it possible to make a decision where the outcome will eventually lead to your destruction? It seems that population control would be the causal and reasonable solution when your resources are diminishing.

Most people will be able to understand that it is more likely that the Syrian war is due to drought, and not the Islamic state and the horrible Muslims in this area. After internet, propaganda is relative to the amount of information available and the amount of education a population can obtain by themselves or by other means.

What about the water cycle? If you water the desert, the amount of condensation will increase and probably add most of this water to the water cycle. The question then is: Should we blame the Israeli people when we are experience extreme flooding in the northern hemisphere? Considering the amount of water they add to the water-cycle, we can assume that they are impacting our weather.

Adding water?

Israel and its surrounding nations are including approximately 1,3 billion cubic meters annually.

The added desalination is not much compared to other nations, but still. We know that this is a very stupid thing to do.

Notes about Milankovitch cycles

It will not be difficult to argue that solar and planetary movements can have an impact on our planet. Such systems are huge, and will certainly have an impact.

If we analyse the effects of the Milankovitch cycles it is probable that they can have some substance. Humans have lived on our planet for 200.000 years, and have survived previous ice-ages and heating of our planet. This might give us some optimism, if we do not take into the account that in previous times, humans did not exist in a population of seven billion people, driving around in approximately 1 billion cars.

The cycles in question have a 100.000, 42,000 and 21.000 year rotational motion, and they might have an effect. But because of the high uncertainties, most researchers are more focused on human influence on our water cycles. They know probably exactly the amounts of energy the carbon dioxide can accumulate, and how much these projections might influence the water cycle.

Another observation stipulating the influences of the Milankovitch cycles is the fact that ice is melting on both poles, and defying what you should experience due to axial tilt and axial precession. Maybe eccentricity is influencing our planet, but until scientists are specific about the energy increase from the sun due to this effect at the current eccentricity, we cannot take this into account.

The facts below will show that such a calculation is not necessary!

The facts are the following:

• The present eccentricity is 0.017 and decreasing (Maximum is 0.0679 concerning climate, and minimum is 0.000055)
• Currently the Earth is tilted at 23.44 degrees from its orbital plane, roughly halfway between its extreme values
• At present, perihelion occurs during the southern hemisphere’s summer, and aphelion is reached during the southern winter. Thus the southern hemisphere seasons are somewhat more extreme than the northern hemisphere seasons, when other factors are Equal

Notes about The Svensmark Hypothesis

A theory called the svendsmark hypothesis links cosmic rays to our climate. We can probably state that huge planetary systems are likely to have an impact on our systems. It is also highly probable that solar rays and other rays are increasing temperatures, causing clouds to form and influences the climate. It would be stupid to denounce such intuitive information.

Svendsmark is not denouncing other factors that influence our climate. The real question is not whether cloud formations alone are impacting our climate, but how much they do this relative to other factors. If he did not include such discussions in his research, how can he expect to be applauded to find the reason and only cause to climate change?

Why do clouds form? Even a child would be able to understand that the sun is driving the water cycle, through evaporation, condensation and cloud formation. If we conclude that solar rays and other rays and their intensity are correlated to a cloud cover, it is not really something that will shock the intellectual community.

But if we then put up a graph about the cosmic ray cycles that contribute to these clouds, they span over millions of years. We are experiencing a change that is so rapid, that we can almost feel it. Scientists have actually found that there are no correlations between our rapid changes in climate and the current intensity in cosmic rays.

The biggest question about these cosmic rays, are the following: Have Svendsmark been able to measure the cosmic ray intensity over more than hundreds of years giving him a good and credible set of data that can prove that the global increase in rainfall and increase in drought conditions are correlated to cosmic rays?

When we look at the facts about carbon dioxide and water vapor added to our atmosphere it is much easier to understand that the cloud cover will increase, and that solar activity and other rays will influence the water cycle, since it is the main driver of this activity.

In Bergen with above 230 days of rain per year, the cloud cover is pretty much permanent. If you ask a person who lives in the city if they think that it is the cosmic ray that causes this phenomenon, they would probably laugh, and rather conclude that it is the mountains and closeness to the coast that causes their bad luck in weather.

We will not denounce theories or cloud cover correlations because they are intuitively correct, but there are a high probability that they are not the main driver of energy diffusion so rapid that we have experienced the change through one generation.